Probabilistic Forecasting - Short Course

Many hydrologic forecasting agencies are moving towards probabilistic forecasting for the purpose of estimating predictive hydrologic uncertainties. These estimates are often based on ensemble techniques and/or statistical post-processing. This course gives an introduction to these techniques as well as discusses related topics such as verification of probabilistic forecasts and effectively using probability forecasts in operational practice.

Forecasting may reduce but cannot eliminate inherent uncertainties about the future. One approach to managing this is to estimate remaining uncertainties in a probabilistic fashion and thus arrive at a probabilistic forecast. This estimation can be done using ensemble techniques, statistical post-processing or a combination of these.

The quality of resulting forecasts can be assessed through a process called forecast verification. Verification of probabilistic forecasts uses different techniques than verification of deterministic forecasting. Within the framework of a forecast – decision – response system, effective forecasting requires that attention is given to additional issues such as forecast visualization, communication, decision-making and training.

The present course comprises an introduction to these topics. It is aimed at both practitioners and scientists.

Programme

• Introduction to uncertainty, risk and probability
• Techniques for estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty: ensembles and post-processing
• Verification: how good is my (probabilistic) forecast?
• Forecasting applications: (i) storm surge forecasting for the North Sea coast; (ii) fluvial forecasting in Rhine, Meuse and the EFAS system
• Serious game: making forecast sensitive decisions
• Using probabilistic forecasts in operational practice.

Online course dates

Session 1: Thursday, 2 December 2021,  13:00 – 16:30 CET (Delft time, UTC+1)
Session 2: Monday, 6 December 2021,  13:00 – 16:30 CET
Session 3: Thursday, 9 December 2021,  13:00 – 16:30 CET

Course leader

dr.ir. J.S. (Jan) Verkade, Deltares

Fee

The registration fee for this course is € 565, – excluding VAT.
50% discount for lecturers at centers of education.

REGISTRATION

Please sign in (top right corner) using your MyDeltares account. 

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After the MyDeltares registration or signing in, it will be possible for you to register for individual 2021 events, get a personal overview (My schedule), make changes in your schedule, profile etc. 

You will receive an email confirmation from Microsoft Teams (MS Teams) with further instructions.

If you come across any problems with the registration, please contact our team at mydeltares@deltares.nl. 

START OF THE SESSION

Please check in early to test your audio and video. We will open the session at 08:50 (CET, Delft time), 10 minutes before the start of the session.

RECORDED

No