Asset Publisher

Probabilistic Forecasting - Short Course

Probabilistic Forecasting - Short Course
08 Nov

Probabilistic Forecasting - Short Course

Registration is closed

08 Nov 2022 09:00 - 16:30 (CET)
Course (on-premises)

€ 599 (excluding 21% VAT)
Room : Colloquium

Many hydrologic forecasting agencies are moving towards probabilistic forecasting for the purpose of estimating predictive hydrologic uncertainties. These estimates are often based on ensemble techniques and/or statistical post-processing. This course gives an introduction to these techniques as well as discusses related topics such as verification of probabilistic forecasts and effectively using probability forecasts in operational practice.

Forecasting may reduce but cannot eliminate inherent uncertainties about the future. One approach to managing this is to estimate remaining uncertainties in a probabilistic fashion and thus arrive at a probabilistic forecast. This estimation can be done using ensemble techniques, statistical post-processing or a combination of these.

The quality of resulting forecasts can be assessed through a process called forecast verification. Verification of probabilistic forecasts uses different techniques than verification of deterministic forecasting. Within the framework of a forecast – decision – response system, effective forecasting requires that attention is given to additional issues such as forecast visualization, communication, decision-making and training.

The present course comprises an introduction to these topics. It is aimed at both practitioners and scientists.



  • Introduction to uncertainty, risk and probability
  • Techniques for estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty: ensembles and post-processing
  • Verification: how good is my (probabilistic) forecast?
  • Forecasting applications: (i) storm surge forecasting for the North Sea coast; (ii) fluvial forecasting in Rhine, Meuse and the EFAS system
  • Serious game: making forecast sensitive decisions
  • Using probabilistic forecasts in operational practice.


Course date

Tuesday, 8 November 2022,  09:00 – 16:30 CET (Delft time, UTC+1)

Course leader J.S. (Jan) Verkade, Deltares



The registration fee for this course is € 599, – excluding VAT.
50% discount for lecturers at centers of education.



Please sign in (top right corner) using your MyDeltares account. 

If you already have either a DSD or OSS account and no MyDeltares account yet, then click on the link Forgot Password? to setup your MyDeltares account including a new password. Once you have completed the password reset you can login. 

After the MyDeltares registration or signing in, it will be possible for you to register for individual 2022 events, get a personal overview (My schedule), make changes in your schedule, profile etc. 

If you come across any problems with the registration, please contact our team at




Registration info - DSD-INT


1. Sign in (top right corner) using your MyDeltares account or register first if you don’t have an account yet.

Note: if you already have a DSD or OSS account but not yet a MyDeltares account, simply click Forgot Password? to initiate the setup of your MyDeltares account. After completing the password reset process, you'll be able to log in seamlessly.

2. Click <ADD TO CART> button for your session of interest.

3. Go to your “Shopping cart” (top right corner) to finalise your registration.

If you come across any problems with the registration, please contact our team at